October 25, 2010
October 24, 2010
Currency War
gr8 article on how war of currency actually is war for natural resources. Good insight and thought provoking.
October 1, 2010
India lifts ban on Sugar futures...
finally.. after lot of delays n hiccups FMC has lifted the ban on Sugar and now in few days most likely we'll have new contracts up n running.. sugar mills r gungho abt it.. so as traders... lets see hw it turns out to be in likely surplus season...
August 14, 2010
India resumes "EXPORT" of Sugar
Just heard this line from one of the brokers in Maharashtra almost a fortnight ago. He continued to say that soon this quantity will become from few thousand tons to almost a million or so ton. I argued that this is not possible esp when govt is under so much of pressure of inflation and even allowing wheat to rot then to export. Then he said that this is beyond pure demand - supply equation. Some mills had contracted raws/ whites at peak rates and now finding no domestic takers for sugar as market has crashed. So now option left is to re-export as world market is up on Brazilian port blockage. For that lot of media published on higher than expected 2009-10 season and now bumper 2010-11 season. All this looks linked up.... now whole world knows that India is surplus sugar country hence no one should raise voice to curtail export of sugar.. I think this is very smart....
To me this media highlight of Wheat rotting in FCI godowns also looks made up story to gain public/ political consensus to allow Wheat export.
What you say??? think over weekend and I will be back then with some clarity on these well marketed ideas.
August 6, 2010
Bull Run in Wheat - Impact of Russian Drought
Russia has become an increasingly important force in the global supply of grains. Russia provided 14.5% of global exports from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Moreover, it has played a key role in meeting rising import demand, exporting 17.5 million metric tons of wheat, up from less than one million in 2000-01 and the move to ban export has reignited fears that nervous governments will begin hoarding their own supplies, potentially causing a shortage. Nations that already are struggling to feed themselves are scrambling to lock in deliveries.
This bull run (wheat prices almost doubled globally in last 2 months) definitely will have some impact on India and ncdex prices have started to reflect that. However Govt is under tremendous pressure and with bumper crop and stock in India, prices here are less likely to go up. Now that gives India a natural advantage in International market. We can export so called surplus wheat (as media highlighting every day that wheat is rotting all across India due to poor warehousing).
Now the big question is - How wise it'll be open export window for Wheat???
Will share my thoits on that in my next post.. till then happy trading.. enjoy the weekend :)
August 1, 2010
Free Fall Sugar
This is ex-kolhapur price... market is expected to remain on bearish side.. and is likely to go further deep post diwali.....
most of the people in industry and trade orgaisation are talking about 23-24 mmt sugar production in India... but I can see its being no less then 26 mmt... lets see last season prediction by me was closest to what reality is... (i told 18.5 mmt as against actual being 19 mmt and govt forecasted 14.5 mmt.. what a joke :)
April 25, 2010
Sweet Dream turn Nightmare - The Sugar Story
After a maddening bull run, I'm back to share my thoughts on the future the industry gonna experience on the backdrop of sharp jump in production numbers and steep fall in prices. This time I'm planning to write a series of articles on Past, Present and Future of Sugar industry and Why and How it's time for Govt and Producers/Mills to learn and take advantage of not so exciting perod to build a sustainable & profitable indutry.
So my next post will start with Part-I and will focus more on Past, The Sweet Dream Period
November 24, 2009
Price movement of Agri commodities
Out of all agri commodities Sugar has been a clear cut out performer with prices moving in one direction and is breaking 3 decades highs.
Most commodities have experienced some price resurgence in 2009, recovering from the losses in the second half of 2008. The price of Brent crude oil, which collapsed from USD 134/barrel in July 2008 to just USD 42/barrel in December 2008, has been climbing back to reach an average of USD 73/barrel in October 2009. Food commodity prices (comprising of cereals, vegetable oils, protein meals, meats, seafood, sugar, bananas and oranges) rose by 14.6% between a low in December 2008 and July 2009. However, from July to October 2009, food com
modity prices fell by 3.5% and prices in October 2009 remained 26% below their peak of June 2008. Some commodities have seen prices falls over the past few months. Maize and soybeans prices have fallen by a respective 7% and 16% since May 2009, while wheat prices have dropped 23% from May to USD 198.8 per tonne. This fall in price has made grains a more competitive feedstock for ethanol production vis-à-vis sugar crops. Commodity prices still remain significantly higher than five years ago, which marked the beginning of the commodity boom. Soybeans and maize prices in October 2009 were 81% and 74% higher than in January 2005 respectively. Crude oil prices were in October 2009 65% higher than in January 2005. Wheat prices, the worst agricultural commodity performer over the past 5 years, are still 29% higher today than they were in January 2005.
modity prices fell by 3.5% and prices in October 2009 remained 26% below their peak of June 2008. Some commodities have seen prices falls over the past few months. Maize and soybeans prices have fallen by a respective 7% and 16% since May 2009, while wheat prices have dropped 23% from May to USD 198.8 per tonne. This fall in price has made grains a more competitive feedstock for ethanol production vis-à-vis sugar crops. Commodity prices still remain significantly higher than five years ago, which marked the beginning of the commodity boom. Soybeans and maize prices in October 2009 were 81% and 74% higher than in January 2005 respectively. Crude oil prices were in October 2009 65% higher than in January 2005. Wheat prices, the worst agricultural commodity performer over the past 5 years, are still 29% higher today than they were in January 2005. November 22, 2009
World Sugar Outlook 2009/10
The world sugar economy is facing a second consecutive year of a significant gap between world consumption and production. The distinctive deficit phase characterized by a significant excess of global consumption over production, as well as a further reduction in stocks and tightness in the world stock. A continuing decrease in the level of stocks is expected to further support world market prices.
--> Production – 160 mmt
--> Consumption – 168 mmt
--> GAP – 8 mmt
Most of the major sugar exporters have seen a strengthening of their currencies against the US dollar over the past six months. This has, to a large extent, cushioned the magnitude of world sugar price rises when expressed in national currencies.
--> Consumption – 168 mmt
--> GAP – 8 mmt
Most of the major sugar exporters have seen a strengthening of their currencies against the US dollar over the past six months. This has, to a large extent, cushioned the magnitude of world sugar price rises when expressed in national currencies.
September 29, 2009
India.. net sugar importer
India... likely to remain importer for atleast 2 more seasons... unless farmers go beserk and again produces all time high cane...
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