India... failing to export sugar....

India may sell less of sugar abroad than previously estimated because of higher domestic prices, supporting a globally rally in the commodity, according to Bloomberg. Exports may total 3 million metric tonnes in the season ending Sept. 30, SL Jain, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in an interview in Mumbai. That's less than 3.5 million tonnes the group orecast in February. Prices in Maharashtra, the nation's biggest sugar-producing state, have climbed almost 40% to Rs1,250 (US$31) per 100 kilograms on average since the season started. Prices in Uttar Pradesh have risen 25% in the period, Jain said. It is more profitable now to sell sugar locally,” he said. “A lot of factories have defaulted” on their export contracts because of rising domestic prices. Mills have sold 2.1 million tonnes of sugar since Oct. 1, including 1.3 million tonnes of raw sugar, he said. The country shipped only 1.7 million tonnes last year because of a ban on exports that was lifted in January 2007.

LMC Sees India importing sugar

India, a key supplier of raws, may have to import sugar by 2010/11, a leading global consultancy, while a domestic brokerage said imports would happen sooner as domestic output drops. Refineries around the world, especially in the Middle East started viewing India as a dependable supplier of raws as the country, saddle with huge domestic stocks, entered the raw sugar export market in June 2007, when it sold 500,000 tons. According to trade sources, after a record output of 28.4 million tons in the crop year to September 2007, output in India is likely to fall in the next two to three years as farmers shift from sugarcane to more profitable grains. Mr. Gareth Forber, Head of sugar research at LMC International Ltd has stated that India may have to import sugar in 2010/11 after exporting less in the next two seasons. He said India’s exports were expected to fall to about 2.5 million tons next crop year, one million tons lower than the estimated 3.5 million tons this year. He added that India can manage to export some sugar in 2009/10 but may have to import in 2010/11.