August 9, 2011

Global Crisis - More political and policy related and less of economic

There are a lot of media coverage and a panic reaction in financial market since last few days (Esp after Drama is US) Though I'm naive to put in comments on something so big but thought of sharing my personal views on recent developments....

Firstly I feel this time situation is far more complicated than 2008 economic crisis period as during 2008 time the focus was only on financial irregularities and their correction hence all efforts were put in to bring money flow back to market and ensure bad debts / dead money is cleaned off. For that Govts across globe took the hit and cleaned up most of the mess. But now Situation is much more complicated, its not just US Dollar and their debt limit which is cause of concern (if that would have been the case US would have printed more currency ($) to bring situation under control). This time the whole intent of doing the right things were put on stake hence it all spiraled.

Secondly this time esp in EU there is a much bigger problem has cropped up (which most of emerging market anyway facing) and that is of Socio-Economic Disparity. There is fast growth of people in western countries that are getting poorer due to economic slowdown and now with recent cut in social spending, this will increase more. This has led to fear among people and they have started to panic (which is visible in recent outburst of Riots in UK)

Third I feel if US and EU are able to overcome this crisis (which most likely they will esp US) there corporate (large companies) will become financially much more stronger and confident about future. This will lead them to expand in to new emerging markets much more aggressively and will look at hostile takeovers in Africa/ SE Asia/ India/ Japan. China being relatively closed economy will not face any trouble at home but will surely face tough competition overseas. It'll be a classic case of Hunter becoming Hunted.

These are some of the thoughts which are coming across my mind and will keep posting as and when I'm able to put words into it.