November 24, 2009

Price movement of Agri commodities



Out of all agri commodities Sugar has been a clear cut out performer with prices moving in one direction and is breaking 3 decades highs.


Most commodities have experienced some price resurgence in 2009, recovering from the losses in the second half of 2008. The price of Brent crude oil, which collapsed from USD 134/barrel in July 2008 to just USD 42/barrel in December 2008, has been climbing back to reach an average of USD 73/barrel in October 2009. Food commodity prices (comprising of cereals, vegetable oils, protein meals, meats, seafood, sugar, bananas and oranges) rose by 14.6% between a low in December 2008 and July 2009. However, from July to October 2009, food commodity prices fell by 3.5% and prices in October 2009 remained 26% below their peak of June 2008. Some commodities have seen prices falls over the past few months. Maize and soybeans prices have fallen by a respective 7% and 16% since May 2009, while wheat prices have dropped 23% from May to USD 198.8 per tonne. This fall in price has made grains a more competitive feedstock for ethanol production vis-à-vis sugar crops. Commodity prices still remain significantly higher than five years ago, which marked the beginning of the commodity boom. Soybeans and maize prices in October 2009 were 81% and 74% higher than in January 2005 respectively. Crude oil prices were in October 2009 65% higher than in January 2005. Wheat prices, the worst agricultural commodity performer over the past 5 years, are still 29% higher today than they were in January 2005.

November 22, 2009

World Sugar Outlook 2009/10

The world sugar economy is facing a second consecutive year of a significant gap between world consumption and production. The distinctive deficit phase characterized by a significant excess of global consumption over production, as well as a further reduction in stocks and tightness in the world stock. A continuing decrease in the level of stocks is expected to further support world market prices.


--> Production – 160 mmt
--> Consumption – 168 mmt
--> GAP – 8 mmt

Most of the major sugar exporters have seen a strengthening of their currencies against the US dollar over the past six months. This has, to a large extent, cushioned the magnitude of world sugar price rises when expressed in national currencies.