India resumes "EXPORT" of Sugar

Just heard this line from one of the brokers in Maharashtra almost a fortnight ago. He continued to say that soon this quantity will become from few thousand tons to almost a million or so ton. I argued that this is not possible esp when govt is under so much of pressure of inflation and even allowing wheat to rot then to export. Then he said that this is beyond pure demand - supply equation. Some mills had contracted raws/ whites at peak rates and now finding no domestic takers for sugar as market has crashed. So now option left is to re-export as world market is up on Brazilian port blockage. For that lot of media published on higher than expected 2009-10 season and now bumper 2010-11 season. All this looks linked up.... now whole world knows that India is surplus sugar country hence no one should raise voice to curtail export of sugar.. I think this is very smart....

To me this media highlight of Wheat rotting in FCI godowns also looks made up story to gain public/ political consensus to allow Wheat export.

What you say??? think over weekend and I will be back then with some clarity on these well marketed ideas.

Bull Run in Wheat - Impact of Russian Drought

Russia has become an increasingly important force in the global supply of grains. Russia provided 14.5% of global exports from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Moreover, it has played a key role in meeting rising import demand, exporting 17.5 million metric tons of wheat, up from less than one million in 2000-01 and the move to ban export has reignited fears that nervous governments will begin hoarding their own supplies, potentially causing a shortage. Nations that already are struggling to feed themselves are scrambling to lock in deliveries.

This bull run (wheat prices almost doubled globally in last 2 months) definitely will have some impact on India and ncdex prices have started to reflect that. However Govt is under tremendous pressure and with bumper crop and stock in India, prices here are less likely to go up. Now that gives India a natural advantage in International market. We can export so called surplus wheat (as media highlighting every day that wheat is rotting all across India due to poor warehousing).

Now the big question is - How wise it'll be open export window for Wheat???

Will share my thoits on that in my next post.. till then happy trading.. enjoy the weekend :)

Free Fall Sugar

This is ex-kolhapur price... market is expected to remain on bearish side.. and is likely to go further deep post diwali.....

most of the people in industry and trade orgaisation are talking about 23-24 mmt sugar production in India... but I can see its being no less then 26 mmt... lets see last season prediction by me was closest to what reality is... (i told 18.5 mmt as against actual being 19 mmt and govt forecasted 14.5 mmt.. what a joke :)