Its month end and all satorias are gearing up for a week full of news/ rumours/ statements etc for coming month's Quota. October... the beginning of new season is starting with depressed mindset of millers & farmers and consumers are rejoicing... lets play out some number game :
2006-2007
Opening Stock: 4 mmt
Production: 28.5 mmt
Consumption: 20 mmt
Export: 2 mmt
Buffer: 5 mmt (just on papers as physical sugar still with mills)
Ending stock: 5.5 mmt (actually 10.5 mmt)
2007-2008
Opening Stock: 10.5 mmt
Production: 32 mmt
Consumption: 21 mmt
Export: 4 mmt (Including Raw sugar)
Buffer: Zero as of now
Ending stock: 17.5 mmt
If we go purely on nos. than we are talking about an ending stock of almost a year's requirement. Well this may be an inflated no. and and even if we assume that only 60% of sugar actually is available, still that no. turns out to be very high @ 10.5 mmt.
Where will this all sugar go... well today no one has answer for that, so in short next season gonna be an depressing year for millers and farmers and consumer will command the price.
Let all speculators and millers have the final laugh (expected price increase during October month) before sugarcane starts knocking on mill's doors.
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