The statistical estimates that were released over the past month would be enough to stop small children from sleeping at night. The ISO called their surplus “frightening” and went on to describe a monster that won’t stop growing and that is now so huge that it is terrorising producers the world over. And no matter where you try to hide, you can’t avoid it. (Some analysts have optimistically tried to lock it up in India, but it seems to be escaping.) The ISO forecast a 2007/08 global sugar surplus of 10.8 mln mt, up from 10.288 mln in 2006/07. They added that world stocks are anticipated to grow by 6.321 mln mt from the previous season to
a record high of 73.53 mln mt, equal to 46.3% of global consumption compared to 37.7% two years ago. ED and F Man forecast a world sugar surplus of over 14 mln mt in 2007/08, up from 12 mln mt last season (Man’s figures are tel quell also). Man warned that the surplus could grow further because of plentiful rains from the Indian monsoon and CS Brazilian rain in July. Czarnikow pegged the world sugar surplus in 2007‐2008 at 11 mln mtrv, up by 1 mln mt from the previous season. They added that output is forecast at 172.5 mln mt, up 5 mln mt on the year, while consumption is estimated to increase by 4.3 mln to 160.4 million mt. (To complete the picture, our estimates for the 2007/08 Apr / Mar would show a surplus of 12.0 mln mt.)
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